Valentine’s Day Letter to Future
Many feared, with good reason, that civilization would collapse before we learned to change our ways from our focus on personal luxury to focusing on serving the Beloved Community of Life. But courageous people ignored their fear and dug into the work of the Great Transition. We emparked on an adventure. In healing the planet, we healed ourselves from the isolation and depression that was too normal back then. I had a very bad case of that. We were too busy loving on the planet and asking humanity to help to be isolated and depressed.
Most of our great forests were in low income countries. We slowly learned that we had to make it easier for everyone to meet their basic needs. If not, the low income folks would, even if they didn’t want to, they would sacrifice our natural treasures to take care of themselves.
Turning our global civilization was like turning that great old ship, the Titanic. Like the Titanic in 1912, our navigators saw the iceberg miles ahead, but the ship had so much momentum and the rudder was so small, that it was difficult to turn fast enough to avoid hitting the iceberg. With the Titanic, the ship sank and most of the passengers died. But unlike the Titanic, we had 8 billion rudders we could turn. Every person could help turn the direction of society.
Too often what we could do was so humble and humbling, we wondered if we made any difference. It was an act of faith to try. But the best thing we could do was ask more people to help.
Most people, even in the USA, were concerned. Of the concerned, a bit less than half were downright alarmed. Of the alarmed, few of them were even “often” talking about it with their friends and family found the Yale survey. And less than half were taking action. What were they doing instead of acting? Running in circles and screaming and shouting? More likely trying not to think about it because it seemed so huge and impossible.
The challenge was to personally ask folks to do a little something. Alas, we knew how to obey much better than how to organize. We knew how to blame much better than how to be the change we wished to see. As we began to win more, this improved a lot.
Energy Transition
In 2024, demand for fossil energy peaked and began to decline. This was shocking for many fossil fuel professionals in my city, Houston, Texas. All their lives demand for their product had grown. They had devoted their lives to extracting it They thought this would go on forever. It was difficult for them when it began to decline, but they could not argue with the Merciless Market. Renewable energy had become cheaper than even natural gas. Those investors and employees that were slow to rethink their ideas got stuck with losses.
The peak inspired the climate activists here in Houston to take heart and double down on their organizing. As we began to win more, climate activists became less negative and more joyful. We began to be charming. This helped attract more to the movement.
Even though there had been for several years clear warnings that oil demand was leveling off, many in the industry and many investors did not heed them. In 2024, the year demand was expected to peak, they produced more than ever. This resulted in a glut of fossil fuels on the Market which drove prices down. A lot of people lost their shirts. Rig count fell. Fracking ground to a halt. Employees were laid off. Some blamed President Biden.
Crisis is also opportunity. We had a teachable moment. Since we had not been through an energy transition for generations, folks didn’t recognize it until it was explained to them. As the activists in Houston explained their messages became more clear, concise and coherent. As they repeated their stories for the millionth time, it began to percolate into the general population.
In the Presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Trump carried Texas again but this time by only ½ of 1% instead of 2%. But Trump lost the national election by more than before. In 2020, he lost by 3%. . The Texas cities voted for Biden but in the countryside, folks believed Trump’s ridiculous stories that he could bring back the good old days when Texas oil wells were hiring any able-bodied man. The beginning of the end of those days was 1973, but the elders still remember those good old days. When Trump validated that times were harder for them and said he could bring them back again, they wanted to believe him. They supported Trump passionately.
But now our diligent story-telling was making an impact. Folks realized that President Biden was not to blame for the oil industry’s bad luck. Rather market forces. The story spread that fossil fossil fuels were a dying industry.
Still it took another decade until Democrats in Texas began to win statewide races. When President Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act in 1965, it split the Democratic Party. In Texas, the folks who split off became Republicans. They then allied with the fossil fuel industry and had dominated the Texas capital for 30 years.
Houston was founded on growth. For nearly 200 years it grew in population and attracted people that wanted to profit from economic growth. Renewable energy is a disruptive innovation. It disrupted the great oil and gas industry. With renewable energy, it did not require such vast capital to produce and distribute energy. One characteristic of disruptive technologies is they come from outside existing organizations of power. While the oil industry thought about investing in clean energy, they mostly did not. While the USA thought about investing in clean energy, they mostly did not. Instead China cornered the market on manufacture of solar panels. Later it cornered the market on electric vehicle manufacturing.
Regenerative Agriculture
But years after the peak in fossil fuel demand, carbon dioxide in the air kept on rising. “Why isn’t atmospheric carbon dioxide falling?” became a global question. Long ago, the IPCC had said “Energy is not enough, we have to change land use too” in a 2019 special report, SRCCL.
More and more of Houston’s climate movement began to focus on emissions from land use. So the stories we told began to explain the carbon cycle and define regenerative agriculture. This was not too hard as we had long had a vibrant movement in Houston for backyard gardening and permaculture.
America Needed a Humbling Reality Check
America thinks our way is best. They believe we have the one right way to live. And, too often, the world agrees. We have enormous prestige. The good news is that for more than a generation, some Americans have been rejecting that hubris. In 2000, the demographer said they were a quarter of Americans. Their numbers have been growing but they lack self-awareness and righteousness.
Mother Nature Had to Slap Humanity Around
to Get Our Attention and Keep us Learning
Several weather catastrophes helped capture the imagination of folks around the world. This further strenthened the movement. As it grew, the movement moved from being negative and fearful but instead figured out what it was for. Our message became more clear, concise and coherent. So it grew even more.
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Finally Begins to Fall
After passing this milestone, there was still plenty that needed doing. But it got easier and also harder. Easier because more were working on it. We knew what to do and had the political will to do it. But harder because climate impacts grew. Finally, the scientists reported that the chance of the climate weirding out began to shrink. The movement had so much momentum it was unstoppable.
By
Nan Hildreth
3939 Luca St.
Houston, Tx 77021
832-244-7814
NanHildreth@riseup.net